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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-18 21:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Nov 18 the center of TWENTY-ONE-E was located near 12.8, -107.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-11-18 21:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 182038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 ...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 107.0W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 107.0 West. The depression is nearly stationary. An erratic or slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and then the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression should become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-11-18 21:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 182038 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 3(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-11-18 21:38:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 182038 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics
2015-11-18 20:20:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 19:20:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 15:55:50 GMT
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