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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-E (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-20 16:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 the center of TWENTY-E was located near 13.3, -94.4 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-10-20 16:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201454 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 94.4W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 94.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest with some increase in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the west and then the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday with some further increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and reach hurricane strength on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-10-20 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 201453 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 94.4W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 94.4W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 94.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 97.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.9N 98.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 101.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 103.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 94.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-16 22:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 20:34:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 20:50:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-10-16 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 162033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The depression's cloud pattern has increased in organization since yesterday. A small CDO-like feature appears to be forming over the estimated low-level center. There has also been an increase in banding features and their associated curvature, especially over the western half of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates have increased some, and the initial intensity estimate is raised to 30 kt. Recent fixes suggest that the depression may be slowing down, and the initial motion estimate could be slightly slower than the longer-term motion of 265/13. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a general westward course underneath a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 24 to 36 hours but decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper- level trough, extending from the U.S. west coast, causes the ridge to weaken. As the ridge weakens further by 36 hours, the cyclone should begin to gain more latitude. An even greater in increase in latitude is expected after 96 hours when the cyclone encounters a more significant weakness west of 140W. The official track forecast has changed very little compared to the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. With the increased organization of the cyclone's central features, intensification seems likely in an environment characterized by very warm SSTs, low shear, and a moist mid-troposphere. In fact, the SHIPS RI index shows a 65 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is raised relative to the previous one, especially during the early part of the forecast. Given the very conducive large-scale environment for intensification, it would not be surprising to see more occur than what is currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 9.4N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 9.4N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 9.5N 131.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 10.0N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 11.3N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 13.4N 138.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 15.5N 140.6W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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