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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-E (EP5/EP202015)
2015-10-20 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 the center of TWENTY-E was located near 13.2, -94.8 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-10-20 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 202032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 94.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 94.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by Wednesday night and a turn toward the northwest by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and reach hurricane strength on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-10-20 16:57:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 201457 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Satellite data indicate that deep convection associated with the area of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico, has become sufficiently well organized to designate the system as a tropical depression. The circulation of the low has also become better defined according to an overnight ASCAT pass, though it could still be somewhat elongated to the south. The depression's cloud pattern is characterized by interlocking convective bands, with the estimated low-level center underneath the eastward tip of the western band. A Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.0 from TAFB is used to set the initial intensity at 30 kt. Since the center location uncertainty has been high until very recently, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 280/02. The track guidance is in very good agreement that a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico with an east-northeast to west-northwest orientation should impart a west-southwestward motion for about 24 hours. A turn toward the west and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is forecast by 36 hours once the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward. When the cyclone reaches the western edge of ridge around 72 hours, it should turn northwestward. The evolution of a deep longwave trough over the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico is of critical importance to the track forecast after that time as the cyclone nears the southwestern coast of Mexico. There are differences between the models regarding the timing and strength of a shortwave trough dropping into the southwestern U. S. during this period, resulting in increasing spread of the track guidance after 72 hours. The track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but it is a little west of the GFS and ECMWF solutions beyond day 3. The large-scale environment around the cyclone is forecast to be quite conducive for intensification during the next few days, with SSTs to above 30 deg C, a rich moisture supply in the lower to middle troposphere, and very light vertical shear. The main limiting factor should be how quickly the cyclone develops enough inner-core organization to potentially rapidly intensify. Prior to landfall, an increase in southwesterly vertical shear and drier air associated with the mid-to upper-level trough to the northwest could result in weakening, with a peak intensity mostly likely between the 72- and 96-hour points. The NHC intensity forecast is above the multi-model consensus and in best agreement with the LGEM output until the forecast landfall. Dissipation is shown after 96 hours, though it could occur sooner over the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 13.3N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 13.0N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 12.8N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 12.9N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 13.9N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.3N 103.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 20.5N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Graphics
2015-10-20 16:55:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2015 14:55:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2015 14:54:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-10-20 16:55:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 201454 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 25(41) X(41) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 27(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 13(44) X(44) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 23(28) 7(35) X(35) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 11(22) 3(25) X(25) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) P ANGEL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATULCO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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