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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

2015-11-19 03:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.7N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.6N 108.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 19.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics

2015-11-19 01:48:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2015 00:48:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 21:04:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics

2015-11-18 23:23:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 22:23:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 21:04:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics

2015-11-18 22:04:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 20:40:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 21:04:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-11-18 21:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182039 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 Overall, the cyclone's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since the previous advisory. The center of the depression is on the southeastern edge of a large cluster of deep convection, indicative of a continuation of moderate southeasterly shear. A well-defined swirl is also seen in visible satellite imagery, rotating around the south side of the estimated mean center. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt. The center has been moving erratically during the last 6 to 12 hours, with fixes during this time indicating a nearly stationary initial motion. The tail of a deep mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States extends southwestward to just north of the depression, which has created a weakness near 110W. The weakness has created a weak steering environment that should persist for about the next 12 to 24 hours and result in the depression's moving erratically or slowly northward around a weak mid-level high to the east. A turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest is expected after that time with an increase in forward speed when a mid-level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico builds westward into the eastern Pacific to the north of the cyclone. After that time, a trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in a northward turn in 96 hours. The new track forecast is much faster than the previous forecast and adjusted to the left, especially beyond 48 hours, but is not as far west as the multi-model consensus. SHIPS model output indicates a lessening of southeasterly shear over the depression within 24 hours, with the shear remaining relatively low through about 72 hours. Meanwhile, the lower- to mid- tropospheric moisture is forecast to decrease some and be only marginally conducive for strengthening. However, since the cyclone should be over anomalously warm waters during this period, intensification is forecast, especially after the shear decreases. After 72 hours, a tremendous increase in southwesterly shear ahead of the trough advancing from the west should result in rapid weakening, with remnant low status likely in 96 to 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one in agreement with the latest SHIPS/LGEM guidance and remains slightly above the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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