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Tropical Depression ELIDA Graphics
2014-07-02 05:18:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 02:54:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 03:07:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-02 04:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020252 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Elida remains a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of any deep convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, close to a blend of the latest T/CI numbers from TAFB. Strong northwesterly shear over Elida should continue to weaken the system. Model guidance is in good agreement on this solution, and the new NHC intensity prediction is very close to the previous one. The only significant change is to show remnant low status within 24 hours. Given the lack of convection, however, Elida could become a remnant low even sooner than forecast. Elida is moving a little faster toward the southeast this evening - roughly 135/3 - an unusual motion for an eastern Pacific cyclone in July. The depression or its remnants will likely move southward by late tomorrow, then westward by Thursday due to a building low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. Model guidance has shifted southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast is moved in that direction. The small cyclone should degenerate into a trough in 3-4 days, which is in line with the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 103.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.7N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 16.4N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 103.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 16.1N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression ELIDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-07-02 04:52:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 020252 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELIDA (EP5/EP052014)
2014-07-02 04:52:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of ELIDA was located near 17.0, -103.4 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELIDA Public Advisory Number 7
2014-07-02 04:52:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 020252 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.4W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. ELIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND TOWARD THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ELIDA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COLIMA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF JALISCO AND MICHOACAN. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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