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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-07-03 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032032 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 Douglas's low-level center is located just to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a bit since this morning, and a blend of the Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support downgrading Douglas to a 30-kt depression. Continued weakening is forecast while the depression moves over increasingly cooler water and into a drier, more stable environment. Douglas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours, but it could become one earlier if the deep convection diminishes soon. Dissipation is still expected by day 5. Douglas continues to creep northwestward with an initial motion of 315/2 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause the remnant low to turn west-northwestward and accelerate by days 3 and 4. The model guidance is in good agreement, and no significant changes were required to the official NHC track forecast in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.6N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 23.3N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 24.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 25.2N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-03 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 20.6, -116.8 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 21
2014-07-03 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 032032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...DOUGLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 116.8W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-07-03 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 032032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 21
2014-07-03 22:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 032031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.6N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.2N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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