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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-10-16 22:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 16 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 2100 UTC WED OCT 16 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 15 28 28 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 55 48 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 29 23 27 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-10-16 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 2100 UTC WED OCT 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.7N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.5N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Graphics
2013-10-16 17:08:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2013 14:46:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2013 15:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-10-16 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161440 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING FEATURES IS OCCURRING OVER AND TO THE WEST OF PRISCILLA. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED. A 0534Z ASCAT PASS WAS A BULLSEYE PROVIDING BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF PRISCILLA AND ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS 30 KT. THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE MAINLY DUE TO IT TRAVERSING LUKEWARM 26-27C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY AIR...AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN QUITE LOW. ALONG ITS PROJECTED PATH...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MUCH STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL. THUS GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 KT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. AS THE CYCLONE COMPLETELY LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 18.1N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 18.6N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.5N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression PRISCILLA (EP1/EP162013)
2013-10-16 16:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PRISCILLA REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 16 the center of PRISCILLA was located near 18.1, -119.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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