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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-11-01 15:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 011443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1500 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 5 6 6 16 38 NA TROP DEPRESSION 63 36 24 26 40 42 NA TROPICAL STORM 34 57 61 59 41 20 NA HURRICANE X 2 9 9 3 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 8 8 3 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 4(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 10(11) 21(32) 9(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2013-11-01 15:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 011442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1500 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 109.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.4N 110.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.6N 110.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N 105.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2013-11-01 10:09:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2013 08:36:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2013 09:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-11-01 09:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010836 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 30 KT. THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED TO THE EAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS ONLY MAKING THE CYCLONE A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE BEGUN WEAKENING BY THAT TIME. BASED ON A BLEND OF FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.4N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.3N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.8N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.2N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 24.5N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-01 09:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Nov 1 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 16.4, -108.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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