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Summary for Tropical Depression LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-24 10:32:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 24 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.8, -47.8 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression LORENZO Graphics
2013-10-24 05:09:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2013 02:39:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2013 03:05:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-24 04:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 23 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.5, -48.2 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression LORENZO Public Advisory Number 11
2013-10-24 04:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240238 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 ...LORENZO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 48.2W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND LORENZO COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-10-24 04:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240238 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 LORENZO IS ALMOST DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS BEING BLASTED BY 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY VANISHED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...LORENZO IS NOW DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF LORENZO SLIDES EAST AND BECOMES COLLOCATED WITH THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... COLDER WATERS AND DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT RESTRENGTHENING. ASSUMING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...LORENZO WOULD LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. THE LOW SHOULD THEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO HAS BEGUN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4 KT. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED NORTH OF LORENZO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT VERY SOON. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE TURN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 29.5N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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