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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2013-11-01 09:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 108.0W ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTE EN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-11-01 09:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0900 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 6 7 16 23 NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 25 26 28 40 41 NA TROPICAL STORM 65 68 60 58 42 36 NA HURRICANE X 4 8 8 3 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 4 7 7 3 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 10(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-11-01 09:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0900 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.5N 107.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression RAYMOND Graphics
2013-10-30 10:08:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Oct 2013 08:36:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Oct 2013 09:04:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression RAYMOND Forecast Information (.shp)
2013-10-30 09:57:52| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Wed, 30 Oct 2013 08:57:52 GMT
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