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Tropical Depression LORENZO Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-10-24 04:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240237 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0300 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 48.2W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 48.2W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 48.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.1N 47.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Graphics
2013-10-21 17:11:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2013 14:34:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2013 15:07:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-10-21 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211437 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LONG CURVED BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM. A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM TAFB IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/07. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR 27N 47W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG 30N AND TURN EAST-NORTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP THE WESTERLY SHEAR LOW ENOUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 28.0N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 28.9N 54.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 29.6N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 30.1N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 30.4N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 31.4N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-21 16:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of THIRTEEN was located near 28.0, -55.1 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN Public Advisory Number 1
2013-10-21 16:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 55.1W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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