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Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 07:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL MOVING LITTLE BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.1, -107.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 14A
2013-09-18 07:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180532 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 ...MANUEL MOVING LITTLE BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 107.6W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. MANUEL HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6 MPH...9 KM/H...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 05:13:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 02:54:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 03:06:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2013-09-18 04:54:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180253 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 10 13 19 41 NA TROP DEPRESSION 35 34 30 29 29 41 NA TROPICAL STORM 64 58 54 52 47 18 NA HURRICANE X 2 7 6 5 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 6 6 4 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 9(10) 6(16) 2(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 13(16) 6(22) 2(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 13(14) 11(25) 6(31) 3(34) 1(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 4(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 3 19(22) 10(32) 3(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) CULIACAN 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-09-18 04:53:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180253 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE MODEST EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM MAZATLAN BRINGING IN DRY AIR FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WEST OF MAZATLAN HAS BEEN DECREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0/25 KT FROM SAB...T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT VALUE OF T2.4/34 KT. MANUEL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...OR 315/05 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS MANUEL MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BY 48-72 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE STEERING FLOW TO ALSO WEAKEN. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO THE COLD WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C SSTS. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER PASSING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA...MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WITH MANUEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANUEL COULD PEAK AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 23.0N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 23.4N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 23.9N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 24.3N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 24.6N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/0000Z 23.9N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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