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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 13A
2013-09-18 01:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 172337 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 ...MANUEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 107.6W ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-17 23:26:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2013 20:42:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2013 21:19:25 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-17 22:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of MANUEL was located near 22.6, -107.4 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 13
2013-09-17 22:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 172038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN SUMMARY SECTION ...MANUEL REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 107.4W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-09-17 22:37:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 172037 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN SUMMARY SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 107.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 107.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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