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Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 04:53:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.0, -107.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 14
2013-09-18 04:53:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180253 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 ...MANUEL GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 107.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO AND SHIPS NEARBY INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 14
2013-09-18 04:53:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180252 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 107.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 107.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.3N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.6N 110.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.9N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 01:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2013 23:40:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2013 21:19:25 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 01:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of MANUEL was located near 22.7, -107.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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