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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-09-17 22:32:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND BASED ON THESE DATA ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON MANUEL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 25 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE INGESTION OF STABLE AIR FROM WEST OF THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN WESTWARD AFTER IT WEAKENS. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.6N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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tropical
Tropical Depression MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-09-17 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 172032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 9 11 17 41 NA TROP DEPRESSION 35 34 29 24 23 41 NA TROPICAL STORM 64 58 55 55 51 18 NA HURRICANE X 2 7 10 8 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 7 9 8 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 12(14) 10(24) 4(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 6( 7) 15(22) 9(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 10(21) 2(23) X(23) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 1 13(14) 16(30) 7(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) CULIACAN 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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manuel
Tropical Depression INGRID Graphics
2013-09-17 05:13:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2013 02:34:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2013 03:06:25 GMT
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ingrid
Tropical Depression INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-09-17 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170233 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -80C AND COLDER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE...INGRID IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS FRICTION WEAKENS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS DISRUPTED BY THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF INGRID. INGRID HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING 270/04 KT. THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE HIGH SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED...CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR EVEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INGRID IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF EASTWARD-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-17 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING INGRID PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 the center of INGRID was located near 23.7, -99.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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