je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-09-18 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 9 13 21 40 NA TROP DEPRESSION 35 35 30 29 32 43 NA TROPICAL STORM 63 57 55 52 44 17 NA HURRICANE X 2 7 6 3 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 7 6 3 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 9(12) 7(19) 2(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 11(12) 11(23) 4(27) 5(32) 1(33) X(33) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 8( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 4 22(26) 10(36) 3(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) CULIACAN 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
speed
wind
manuel
Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.2, -107.8 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
manuel
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 15
2013-09-18 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 107.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
public
manuel
advisory
Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-09-18 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
manuel
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 07:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 05:33:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 03:06:23 GMT
Tags: graphics
manuel
tropical
depression
Sites : [1524] [1525] [1526] [1527] [1528] [1529] [1530] [1531] [1532] [1533] [1534] [1535] [1536] [1537] [1538] [1539] [1540] [1541] [1542] [1543] next »