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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-09-16 04:55:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160255 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 MANUEL HAS BEEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS...AND THE LAND INTERACTION IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS DECOUPLED...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE MINIMUM LOCATED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...MANUEL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL IS LOSING STRENGTH...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD REDEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM NEARS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN HAZARD IS TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-16 04:53:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of MANUEL was located near 19.8, -104.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 11
2013-09-16 04:53:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160253 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...MANUEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 104.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A WEATHER STATION IN NEVADO DE COLIMA IN THE STATE OF JALISCO OBSERVED A LITTLE OVER 8 INCHES OF RAIN. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD BE SUBSIDING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-09-16 04:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160252 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 79 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 16 NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-09-16 04:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160246 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 104.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 104.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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