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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-09-13 17:03:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131503 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ENOUGH OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND ITS INITIAL STRUCTURE WHICH IS NOT TOTALLY FREE OF THE ITCZ. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/3. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SOON DUE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS JUST A BIT WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS WARNING MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.7N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 16.0N 101.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.7N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.7N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-13 17:01:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of THIRTEEN-E was located near 15.7, -101.3 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2013-09-13 17:01:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131501 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 101.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...AND COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-09-13 17:01:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 131501 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 16 23 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 26 38 39 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 86 63 43 36 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 7 4 3 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 6 4 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 40KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 2 14(16) 8(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 24(28) 9(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 5 10(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) P MALDONADO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-09-13 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131459 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 101.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 101.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.0N 101.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.8N 101.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.7N 101.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.7N 102.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 101.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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