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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-08-31 16:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 311452 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.8N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.6N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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UPDATE 1-Teva to drop depression treatment after trial fails
2013-08-31 12:18:00| Biotech - Topix.net
Generic drugmaker Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd said it will stop the development of a depression treatment after a late-stage trial failed to show the drug was more effective than a placebo.
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treatment
trial
drop
Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-31 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310833 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 A 0407 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND A 0445Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY A DAY OR SO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPART MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE DURING THAT TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING THE DEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD BUT STILL REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME. THEN AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY DAY 4 AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 18.8N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 19.5N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 21.3N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 21.3N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 20.9N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-08-31 10:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310831 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 9 17 19 38 NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 23 34 39 42 44 NA TROPICAL STORM 65 70 53 41 37 18 NA HURRICANE X 4 4 4 2 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 4 4 4 2 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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speed
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (EP1/EP112013)
2013-08-31 10:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 the center of ELEVEN-E was located near 18.8, -116.2 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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tropical
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