je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2013-08-31 10:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 310831 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 116.2W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2013-08-31 10:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 310830 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.2W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.2W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.5N 116.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Graphics
2013-08-31 05:08:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2013 02:43:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2013 03:04:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-31 04:58:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310258 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013 A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WHILE THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING....IT WILL REACH COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR TWO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED AT ALL ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HIGHEST RELIABLE MODEL SUGGESTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF ONLY 46 KT. GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM. BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6. THE LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION NORTHWARD IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR TURN BACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ENHANCED ITCZ REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF MEXICO. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG RANGE...THE NHC FORECAST WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE EQUATORWARD SOLUTIONS. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION WITHIN 120 HR...AND SO DOES THE NHC PREDICTION BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 18.3N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 19.1N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 21.3N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-08-31 04:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310241 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0300 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 6 11 19 28 NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 23 25 34 42 47 NA TROPICAL STORM 65 70 61 50 37 24 NA HURRICANE X 4 9 5 2 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 4 8 5 2 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Sites : [1572] [1573] [1574] [1575] [1576] [1577] [1578] [1579] [1580] [1581] [1582] [1583] [1584] [1585] [1586] [1587] [1588] [1589] [1590] [1591] next »