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Tropical Depression FERNAND Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-08-26 16:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 261437 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 28 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 74 56 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 16 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-08-26 16:37:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 261437 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT FERNAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND FERNAND HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 20.3N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 21.4N 99.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression FERNAND (AT1/AL062013)
2013-08-26 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AS FERNAND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 the center of FERNAND was located near 20.3, -97.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FERNAND Public Advisory Number 5
2013-08-26 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 261437 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AS FERNAND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 97.7W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression SIX Graphics
2013-08-25 23:07:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2013 20:44:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2013 21:03:45 GMT
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