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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-11-17 21:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 172030 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
2019-11-17 15:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 14:34:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 15:30:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-11-17 15:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 Convection has redeveloped near the center of circulation over the past several hours, but this convection appears ragged in satellite imagery. Despite the inability for the depression to maintain organized deep convection for much of last night, recent microwave data indicates that the circulation remains well-defined. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests the intensity remains 25 kt, which will be the advisory initial intensity. Despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in the path of the depression, the model guidance unanimously either dissipate the system or make it a remnant low within a couple of days. This could be due to the fact that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the previous one and shows no further strengthening. This is in agreement with the model guidance, and the depression is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone by 36 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 10.5N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 11.2N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 11.4N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 11.7N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-11-17 15:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 171433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-17 15:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 10.5, -102.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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