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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Graphics
2019-11-16 21:33:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:33:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:33:21 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-11-16 21:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 12(12) 16(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 10N 105W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-11-16 21:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 253 WTPZ41 KNHC 162032 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 The depression has really come unglued over the past 6 hours. Deep convection has decreased dramatically and the little thunderstorm activity that remains is not well organized. Visible imagery reveals that the circulation of the low is elongated from east to west with no clear-cut center. An ASCAT-B overpass at 1604 UTC unfortunately did not sample the entire system, however, it too showed little indication of a well-defined center and max winds of only 25-30 kt. Those winds appeared to be related more to an ongoing Tehuantepec gap wind event than the depression itself. While these evidence would suggest that the system no longer meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, it seems prudent to continue advisories for now, just in case the system makes a comeback later today. The depression continues to move westward, and a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico should keep it or its remnants on a westward or west-northwestward heading for the next few days. Aside from accounting for a slight westward adjustment of the initial position, the main change to the NHC forecast since the last advisory is that it no longer calls for the depression to become a tropical storm, and dissipation is now anticipated within 72 h. This is in line with the latest intensity guidance. Given the cyclone's current structure, it could become a remnant low or dissipate at any time during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 9.6N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-16 21:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NO STRONGER... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Twenty-one-E was located near 9.5, -101.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 3
2019-11-16 21:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NO STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 101.0W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 101.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through early next week and the depression could degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate at any time during the next 72 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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