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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-17 03:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 PM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 9.8, -102.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 4
2019-11-17 03:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 102.4W ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 102.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the depression is expected to dissipate within the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-11-17 03:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 The depression has changed little during the last several hours. The cyclone remains weak with its deep convection confined to a small area near the estimated center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The intensity models are unanimous in showing the depression either holding its strength or weakening during the next couple of days. Although the environmental wind shear is not anticipated to be strong, intrusions of dry air, in part associated with stable air moving through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, should prevent the cyclone from intensifying. The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 3, following the global model guidance, but it would not be surprising if it dissipated or became a remnant low sooner than that. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving westward at about 12 kt steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its northeast. A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 9.8N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 10.1N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 10.5N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 10.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 11.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-11-17 03:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 1 18(19) 5(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 10N 105W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-11-17 03:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 102.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 102.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.1N 103.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.5N 104.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.8N 105.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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