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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Graphics
2019-11-17 21:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 20:32:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 21:24:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-11-17 21:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172031 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression is poorly organized and is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicates that the circulation is not as well-defined as previously thought. In addition, convection that had developed earlier this morning near the center is now weakening, with additional convection developing well to its north. The initial advisory intensity is being held at 25 kt, since the scatterometer sampled maximum winds of a little more than 20 kt. All available intensity guidance unanimously weakens the depression over the next couple of days, despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in its path. This is possibly due to the fact that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and the depression is expected to no longer be a tropical cyclone in 36 hours, if not sooner. The depression is moving west-northwestward at a little faster pace of 8 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants generally west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 11.1N 103.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 11.9N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 12.1N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-17 21:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Twenty-one-E was located near 11.1, -103.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 7
2019-11-17 21:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 ...DEPRESSION BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 103.9W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 103.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the depression is expected to either dissipate or degenerate into a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-11-17 21:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 172030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 103.9W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 103.9W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 103.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.9N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.1N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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