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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-11-16 21:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 101.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 100.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.6N 102.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 101.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
2019-11-16 15:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 14:35:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 14:35:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-11-16 15:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161434 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 A pair of recent SSMIS overpasses revealed that the depression has not become any better organized this morning with little evidence of curvature in its convective bands. That said, the system is still producing plenty of convection, particularly to the north of its center. Earlier ASCAT data suggested that the system may already have 35 kt winds, but it was flagged as questionable due to rain contamination. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB do not yet support tropical storm strength and the intensity assessment remains 30 kt, perhaps conservatively so. It has been difficult to identify the precise location of the depression's center, even in first-light visible imagery. The initial motion is consequently highly uncertain, but it appears that the system is still moving generally westward at around 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone heading westward at a slower speed during the next few days. The track guidance remains in good agreement and the NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory. The depression is located within a seemingly favorable environment for strengthening consisting of low shear, warm SSTs and sufficient moisture. And yet, none of the dynamical models call for the system to reach tropical-storm-strength. Early next week, dry air could become an inhibiting factor if it wraps into the cyclone's circulation, and this is forecast to occur by some of the global models. Some short-term strengthening still seems likely given the favorable environment so no change was made to the official intensity forecast, which is above all of the guidance for the first 24 h. It lies between the lower dynamical guidance and higher DSHP model thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 9.2N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 9.2N 101.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 9.4N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 104.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 10.3N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 10.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-16 15:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING WEST WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 9.2, -100.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 2
2019-11-16 15:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING WEST WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.2N 100.2W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 100.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, but no significant intensification is anticipated through early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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