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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the depression still has a closed circulation and patches of deep convection mainly on its north side. The initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory based on T1.5/25 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that the depression could continue to produce a modest amount of deep convection on Monday before it moves into an environment of increasing southwesterly wind shear. The NHC forecast shows the cyclone becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, but it could reach this status sooner given how weak the system is. All of the global models shows the cyclone degenerating into a trough by day 3, and the NHC forecast follows that scenario. The center of the depression appears to have reformed a little to the north of what we have been tracking. A long-term motion of the system is 300/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge situated to the northeast of the depression should steer it west-northwestward at a slower pace until it dissipates in a few days. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one mostly due to the initial position being farther north than expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 11.9N 104.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 12.8N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-11-18 03:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 18 2019 ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 0300 UTC MON NOV 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-18 03:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 11.9, -104.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 8
2019-11-18 03:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 180234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 ...DEPRESSION BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 104.6W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 104.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the depression is expected to either dissipate or degenerate into a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-11-18 03:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 18 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 0300 UTC MON NOV 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.6W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.6W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.8N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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