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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2019-07-22 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 20:33:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 21:24:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-22 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222032 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Deep convection has increased in association with the small low pressure area we have been monitoring near the Bahamas. Animation of visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate that a closed low-level circulation formed today, and therefore advisories are being initiated on the system. Conventional surface observations along with the scatterometer measurements indicate that the maximum sustained winds in the cyclone are near 25 kt. The system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening, as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Weather Service Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700 mb level. The global models do not intensify the system, and only a slight increase in strength appears likely. In 36 to 48 hours, the models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal trough near the U.S. east coast. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/11 kt. Over the next day or so, the tropical cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge, with the center of the depression expected to remain offshore of the Florida east coast and the southeastern United States until dissipation. The official track forecast follows a small consensus of the only models that were able to follow the center of the depression in the predicted fields. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 25.6N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 27.2N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 30.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 33.7N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-07-22 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 222032 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032019 2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032019)
2019-07-22 22:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 the center of Three was located near 25.6, -78.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1
2019-07-22 22:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 78.6W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Northwest Bahamas and the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 78.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected overnight followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should remain just offshore of the east coast of Florida over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant increase in strength is anticipated, and the depression is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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