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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-07-22 22:30:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 222030 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032019 2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 78.6W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 78.6W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.2N 79.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 33.7N 77.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2019-07-22 16:40:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 14:40:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 15:24:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-07-22 16:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221435 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A recent satellite microwave pass indicates that the depression has not gotten any better organized this morning. It appears that northeasterly shear is keeping much of the convection displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Both the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and UW-CIMMS objective intensity estimate indicate that the system remains a 30-kt depression. The initial motion of the depression is 355/08 kt. Model guidance is in good agreement on a continuation of this general motion for the next 36-48 hours as the depression is steered between a weak mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its northeast. After 48 hours, the system should begin to weaken and turn toward the northwest as it becomes steered by the lower-level flow. The latest NHC forecast track is very near the previous official forecast and is near the track guidance consensus. Although convection has increased this morning, the shear is preventing the inner core of the depression from becoming better established. This shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 kt range for the next 48 hours which should continue to prevent any significant intensification during that time frame. Since the other environmental parameters are somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or so, the depression will likely become a minimal tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the system will move over waters below 26 C and into a stable atmospheric environment which should induce steady weakening. By 72 hours, the system is expected to become a remnant low, with dissipation likely by 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous NHC forecast, and is near the more reliable intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-22 16:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 the center of Five-E was located near 15.9, -116.3 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 2
2019-07-22 16:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 116.3W ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 116.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a gradual turn to the northwest by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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