je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-07-22 16:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221434 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-07-22 16:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221433 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2019-07-22 10:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 08:37:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 09:24:22 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-22 10:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220836 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about 600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between 0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By 72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes, respectively, of the track guidance envelope. Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-22 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 the center of Five-E was located near 15.0, -116.2 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Sites : [636] [637] [638] [639] [640] [641] [642] [643] [644] [645] [646] [647] [648] [649] [650] [651] [652] [653] [654] [655] next »