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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-07-06 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 062039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 73.8W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1016 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 73.8W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.9N 74.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.7N 74.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 34.0N 74.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.5N 73.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 33.5N 73.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 36.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 73.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Two Graphics
2018-07-05 16:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Jul 2018 14:44:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Jul 2018 15:25:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-07-05 16:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051443 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 For the past day or so, we've been monitoring a small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Despite a noticeable mid-level rotation in the convective clouds, it had not been conclusive whether or not the system had a closed circulation at the surface with a well-defined center. However, the system appears more distinct and independent from the Intertropical Convergence Zone as compared to yesterday, and scatterometer data appears conclusive enough to support a closed, yet tiny circulation. We are now confident enough that the system meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and have initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two with maximum winds of 30 kt, which is supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression will be located in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 3 days or so. However, the small cyclone is surrounded by abundant dry air, and the system will be moving over marginally warm waters during the next few days, which could both limit intensification. The NHC official forecast allows for some slight strengthening and most closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus guidance (HCCA), showing the depression becoming a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. Between 72 and 96 hours, the system is expected to begin encountering strong westerly shear and also accelerate, both of which should cause it to degenerate into an open wave east of the Lesser Antilles. Even though the center has been difficult to locate, the initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt. The depression is located to the south of a sprawling subtropical ridge, although a break in the ridge over the central Atlantic may cause the system to slow down a bit during the next 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is likely to speed up again when it becomes situated to the south of a new mid-level high. The track guidance is in generally good agreement, and the NHC official forecast is close to the TVCX multi-model consensus and the HCCA guidance. Even though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue moving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 10.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 10.7N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 11.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 12.1N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 12.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 14.7N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Two (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-05 16:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 5 the center of Two was located near 10.2, -41.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 1
2018-07-05 16:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 051442 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 41.4W ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 41.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Friday. The system is forecast to degenerate into an open trough east of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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