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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2018-07-06 22:41:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 20:41:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 20:41:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-07-06 22:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 062039 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 6(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 6(19) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 6(24) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 4(19) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 11(21) 5(26) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 3(19) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 13(27) 4(31) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 8(16) 13(29) 4(33) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 14(31) 5(36) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 10(22) 15(37) 3(40) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 3(19) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 12(24) 3(27) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 8( 9) 14(23) 12(35) 10(45) 16(61) 2(63) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 2(19) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 11(19) 3(22) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 9(28) 16(44) 3(47) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 9(26) 10(36) 16(52) 2(54) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 3(15) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 9(22) 10(32) 16(48) 3(51) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 8(20) 17(37) 2(39) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 16(32) 4(36) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 16(31) 4(35) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 8(13) 3(16) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 13(24) 2(26) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 13(22) 2(24) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 11(18) 1(19) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 2(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-07-06 22:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062039 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 The area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast has developed enough deep convection with a well-defined circulation to be classified as a tropical depression. This is supported by a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB, and an earlier ASCAT pass with 25-kt winds, which is the initial intensity assigned to the depression. Given that the system is moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment, gradual strengthening is indicated, and the NHC forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm on Saturday. Additional intensification could occur by the end of the forecast period when the cyclone moves northeastward away from the U.S coast and interacts with a mid-level trough. The intensity forecast is very close to the SHIPS model and the Corrected Consensus HCCA. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at about 4 knots. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this weak flow pattern should keep the depression on the same slow track for the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the steering currents are expected to collapse, and the cyclone should begin to meander for a couple of days well off the coast of North Carolina. Then a mid-level trough is expected to approach from the west and force the system on a northeastward track. Most of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur in the eastern quadrant well away from the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. Due to a technical issue, the wind speed probability values at land locations in the wind speed probability text product are too high and do not reflect reduced probabilities that are expected over land. The wind speed probability values provided in the graphics on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and in the publicly disseminated grid files do correctly reflect the reduced probabilities over land. As a result, users should refer to the NHC website graphics and gridded products instead of the text product for the most accurate wind speed probability values until this problem is resolved. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 32.2N 73.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 32.9N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 33.7N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 34.0N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 34.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 33.5N 73.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 33.5N 73.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 36.5N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-06 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 the center of Three was located near 32.2, -73.8 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1016 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1
2018-07-06 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 73.8W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1016 MB...30.01 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 73.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The depression should slow down and meander of well offshore of the coast of North Carolina through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday, with gradual strengthening expected through Monday. A reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1016 mb (30.01 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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