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Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-07-05 16:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 05 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 051442 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1500 UTC THU JUL 05 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-07-05 16:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 05 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 051442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1500 UTC THU JUL 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 41.4W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 41.4W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 10.7N 43.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.4N 45.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.1N 47.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 49.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 56.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 41.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Emilia Graphics
2018-07-01 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Jul 2018 20:34:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Jul 2018 21:25:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-07-01 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012033 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Deep convection associated with Emilia has decreased in coverage since this morning, and it appears that Emilia is finally well on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Emilia is currently over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius and is moving into a drier and more stable airmass. As a result, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight, then continue to spin down and dissipate within 72 hours. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A west-northwestward motion should continue for a little longer but the system will likely turn toward the west as it comes under the influence of the easterly low-level tradewind flow. The latest track envelope has shifted slightly northward and the updated NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-07-01 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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