je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-06-18 16:40:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181440 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 Locating Carlotta's center this morning in conventional satellite imagery has been difficult. An earlier 0806 UTC GMI polar orbital microwave pass, however, was helpful in confirming that the system has in fact persisted as a small, relatively symmetric tropical cyclone. A blend of subjective and objective T-numbers supports 25 kt for this advisory. With the assistance of the aforementioned microwave image, the initial motion is estimated to be 310/4 kt, within the weak low- to mid-level flow generated by high pressure to the north. Landfall still appears to be unlikely due to the expected motion parallel to the coastline, but only a slight northward deviation could bring the center of the small cyclone onshore. In any event, dissipation should occur just offshore by Tuesday morning, if not sooner. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 103.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.1N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-06-18 16:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 181439 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 1500 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-18 16:39:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RESILIENT CARLOTTA MAINTAINING DEPRESSION STRENGTH... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.9, -103.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Carlotta Public Advisory Number 16
2018-06-18 16:39:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 181439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlotta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 ...RESILIENT CARLOTTA MAINTAINING DEPRESSION STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 103.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 103.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the remnants of Carlotta should be near the coast tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is expected to become a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate by Tuesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. SURF: Southwesterly swells are affecting the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-06-18 16:39:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 181439 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 1500 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.1N 103.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 103.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [806] [807] [808] [809] [810] [811] [812] [813] [814] [815] [816] [817] [818] [819] [820] [821] [822] [823] [824] [825] next »