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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2017-07-19 11:02:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jul 2017 09:02:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jul 2017 09:02:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-19 10:58:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190858 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The overall convective pattern of the depression has changed little since the previous advisory and remains ragged looking. Cloud tops colder than -70C have persisted near and to the south of the low-level center, yielding satellite estimates of T2.5/35 kt from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the intensity will remain at 30 kt for this advisory since a 0500Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated a few wind vectors of 27-28 kt in the southwestern quadrant. The initial motion estimate is 20/05 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and regional models are in decent agreement on the depression engaging in some weak binary interaction with the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Greg as the latter cyclone passes about 200 nmi to the north over the next few days. The new forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies near the TVCN consensus model. The upper-level westerly outflow on the east of Hurricane Fernanda is expected to keep the depression in a moderate to strong vertical wind shear regime for the next couple of days. After that, northerly outflow from Greg should act to maintain unfavorable shear conditions across the depression, preventing any significant strengthening until the system dissipates by 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 14.6N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 13.8N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 13.3N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 12.9N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 13.2N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082017)
2017-07-19 10:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOT STRENGTHENING... ...INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM GREG EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 14.6, -120.8 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 4
2017-07-19 10:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190857 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 ...DEPRESSION NOT STRENGTHENING... ...INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM GREG EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 120.8W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 120.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the southwest at a similar forward speed is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-07-19 10:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190857 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 0900 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.8W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.8W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.8N 122.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.3N 122.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.9N 123.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.2N 124.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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