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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-18 16:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181446 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula developed closer to the system's center overnight. It has also produced convection for more than 24 hours despite strong northwesterly shear. Based on the recent slight improvement in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 and 2.5 from SAB and TAFB, advisories are initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression. A large upper-level low centered to its north-northwest is currently imparting about 25-30 kt of shear over the system. The shear is not expected to lessen during the next day or two, and only slight strengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that time. After 72 hours, the upper-level wind pattern could become less hostile which could allow for some strengthening if the tropical cyclone survives the shear over the next couple of days. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low confidence. The depression has been moving slowly westward or west- northwestward, but is expected to begin a slow southwestward motion later today, which is due in part to the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg to its east. Later in the forecast period, as Greg passes to its north, the tropical cyclone should begin to move west- northwestward at a faster forward speed. An alternative scenario shown by the GFS and UKMET models is for the depression to weaken and be absorbed by the circulation of Greg in a few days. Given the possible interaction of Greg, the confidence in the track forecast is also quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 14.6N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 14.3N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 13.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 13.4N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight-E (EP3/EP082017)
2017-07-18 16:45:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 the center of Eight-E was located near 14.6, -118.8 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Public Advisory Number 1
2017-07-18 16:45:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 118.8W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 118.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the southwest is expected later today, and a slow southwestward motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible and the depression could become a tropical storm during the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-07-18 16:45:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 22 17(39) 3(42) 2(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) 15N 120W 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-07-18 16:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181445 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 118.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 118.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 118.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.6N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.3N 120.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.4N 121.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.3N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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