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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-19 16:41:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191441 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The center of the depression is challenging to locate this morning with lots of disorganized convection in the vicinity of the apparent center. Microwave data suggest it is on the northeast side of the convective mass, although it doesn't agree that well with the overnight ASCAT data. The initial position tries to keep continuity from the overnight advisory, since there was a direct ASCAT hit at 0600Z, but it may have to be revised when visible imagery is available. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt, based on a blend of the TAFB/SAB fixes. Unfortunately the forecast of the depression isn't any easier than locating it. Some binary interaction with the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg is likely over the next few days since the cyclones should be moving fairly close to one another. This pattern would probably steer the depression southwestward, then northwestward by day 3 as Greg passes to the north and begins to draw the depression closer to it. The specifics of this interaction, however, are impossible to determine at this range because it also depends on how strong and exactly where the two systems are. It is becoming increasingly likely that Greg will be the more dominant and stronger system, causing the depression to take a more southward track, and would potentially absorb the depression in 4-5 days. The official forecast is shifted southward in the short-term to account for the latest model guidance, but is fairly close to the previous forecast at the end of the period. The intensity forecast is also tricky because many of the global models suggest that there is a window of lower shear between when the northwesterly outflow-related shear from Fernanda weakens and shifts to easterly shear related to the circulation and outflow from Greg. Most of the guidance, however, does not respond much to the lower shear, suggesting little change in intensity during the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus and the previous NHC prediction, though the cyclone does have a small chance to become a tropical storm. The majority of the global models are showing the depression degenerating into a trough by day 4 due to increasing shear and interaction with the circulation of Greg, so the NHC forecast follows suit. It should be noted that this is a very uncertain forecast due to the unusually high number of difficult-to-predict variables. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 14.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.0N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 13.3N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 12.6N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 12.3N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-07-19 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191440 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight-E (EP3/EP082017)
2017-07-19 16:40:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 the center of Eight-E was located near 14.5, -121.1 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Public Advisory Number 5
2017-07-19 16:40:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191440 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 121.1W ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 121.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow southwestward motion is forecast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-07-19 16:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 191439 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.1W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.1W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N 121.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.3N 122.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.6N 123.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.3N 123.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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