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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 3
2017-07-19 04:52:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190252 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM GREG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 119.9W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 119.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest and southwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-07-19 04:52:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190252 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 119.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 119.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N 122.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 123.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2017-07-18 23:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jul 2017 21:37:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jul 2017 21:48:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2017-07-18 22:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jul 2017 20:41:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jul 2017 20:41:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-18 22:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182035 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Strong northwesterly shear continues over the depression with deep convection confined to the southern portion of the circulation. Recent visible satellite images also show that there are a couple of low-level vorticity centers rotating about the mean center. A recent ASCAT pass that caught the eastern portion of the depression only revealed winds of around 20 kt. However, the initial intensity will remain a possibly generous 30 kt for this advisory since the instrument did not sample the area of strongest convection to the southwest of the center. The strong vertical wind shear currently over the cyclone is expected to continue during the next day or two, and the official forecast show no strengthening during this time. In about 3 days, a more favorable upper-level pattern could materialize, but given the uncertainty about the structure of the tropical cyclone at that time and the potential interaction of nearby Tropical Storm Greg, the NHC intensity forecast does not reflect much change in wind speed. The initial motion estimate is 270/4. The track forecast remains quite uncertain as the models show some interaction between the depression and Tropical Storm Greg. Most of the models indicate that the depression will move slowly southwestward during the next couple of days until Greg passes to the north in about 72 hours. After that occurs, the cyclone should begin to move west- northwestward at a faster forward speed under the influence of a low- to mid-level ridge that is predicted to extend westward from northwestern Mexico. Due to the expected complex interaction between, and possible merger of, the two tropical cyclones the forecast track of the depression remains quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 14.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.4N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 14.0N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 13.7N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 13.7N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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