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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-07-19 10:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190857 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 0900 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2017-07-19 04:58:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jul 2017 02:58:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jul 2017 02:58:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-19 04:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190252 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 The depression continues to produce small bursts of deep convection, but microwave data and the last few visible images of the day indicate that the low-level center is exposed to the northeast of the thunderstorm activity. Visible imagery also shows a band of cirrus flowing right over the depression's circulation, indicative of about 25 kt of west-northwesterly shear. Since Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed from six hours ago, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The big question mark for both the depression's future track and intensity is how it will interact with Tropical Storm Greg to its east. All the global models show the depression swinging to the southwest and south of Greg during the next several days as the two circulations interact. The GFS model shows Greg becoming the dominant cyclone, with the depression eventually dissipating. However, the ECMWF and Canadian models seem to prefer the depression becoming the dominant system and absorbing Greg. The UKMET is somewhere in between, with the two circulations merging. Since Greg is the stronger of the two systems at this point, we are favoring that being the dominant one, and the new NHC forecast shows the depression weakening over time and dissipating by 96 hours. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and adjustments would be needed if it becomes apparent that the depression will end up being the dominant cyclone. The depression is moving slowly westward with an initial motion of 270/4 kt. Regardless of the cyclone's future intensity, a more pronounced interaction looks increasingly likely, and the track guidance has shifted southward on this forecast cycle. As a result, the updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted south of the previous forecast, and it lies close to the various consensus aids. This solution is not, however, quite as far south as the HWRF, GFS, and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 14.8N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 13.7N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 13.2N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 13.3N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-07-19 04:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190252 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 18 3(21) X(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082017)
2017-07-19 04:52:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM GREG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 14.8, -119.9 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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