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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2018-06-15 01:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 23:31:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 21:33:26 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-15 01:31:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Four-E was located near 15.6, -100.2 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2018-06-15 01:31:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 142331 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 700 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 100.2W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 100.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue overnight. The cyclone is forecast to slow down as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Friday and Saturday, and could move inland on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero coast, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts approaching 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Farther inland across the state of Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2018-06-14 22:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 20:36:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 21:33:26 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-06-14 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Overnight scatterometer data indicate that the circulation of the system was open on the northwestern side. High-resolution GOES-16 1-min visible data indicate that the low is now closed, with a well-enough defined circulation center. Since there is plenty of banded convection, this system is being designated as a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt is based off the overnight scatterometer data. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/5 kt. A weak mid-level ridge over Mexico is forecast to break down by tomorrow, leaving the depression in an area of light steering currents. Much of the model guidance linger the system just south of the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days until the cyclone gets drawn northward into a larger trough currently seen over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable uncertainty in the timing of this poleward motion, however, with the UKMET, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models faster than the rest of the guidance. This seems like a pretty clear case of staying near the model consensus, given the weak steering flow that makes it nearly impossible to choose one model over another one. Thus, the official forecast shows a slow northward motion, near the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE, and it should be emphasized that the forecast timing of landfall is subject to large changes in the future. The system is not particularly well organized at the moment, with a few swirls seen in the visible imagery rotating around the larger gyre. After the low consolidates, light-to-moderate shear with very warm waters, and high mid-level humidity should lead to steady intensification. This is a tricky forecast, however, since land is so close to the north, which would prevent much strengthening. The official forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane guidance, a bit lower than the model consensus since the HWRF keeps the cyclone well offshore (unlike the official prediction), leading to a stronger storm. It has been an active early part of the eastern Pacific season. This is the 2nd earliest 4th tropical cyclone on record in the basin during the satellite era (1966-present), only 6 hours behind the previous record in 1974. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.5N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.1N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 16.3N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.7N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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