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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2016-07-08 11:12:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 08:36:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 09:06:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-07-08 10:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080838 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression is showing signs of becoming better organized. There has been an increase in central convection near the estimated center location and in convective banding to the north and southeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, while the cyclone moves over a cool patch of SSTs in the wake of Hurricane Blas. After that time, the intensification rate should increase as the cyclone will be moving over warm SSTs in a low shear environment. In 4 to 5 days, the shear is expected to increase and SSTs cool along the track, which should result in weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little below the consensus aid IVCN during the first 24 hours and then close to the consensus through 48 hours. Beyond that time the official forecast is higher than the consensus but not as aggressive as the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 275/05 given the uncertainty in the exact center location. The cyclone should be steered more quickly westward by a building subtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a west- northwestward turn is forecast as the system reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge. The guidance has shifted northward this cycle in the short term, in particular the ECMWF, which is now well north of the rest of the models through 48 hours. The new NHC track has been adjusted to the north this cycle, but still lies a little south of the multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than normal given that the system is still organizing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 12.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 12.7N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 13.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 13.2N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.2N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 17.3N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042016)
2016-07-08 10:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 the center of FOUR-E was located near 12.5, -112.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 7
2016-07-08 10:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 112.0W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 112.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-07-08 10:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 0900 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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