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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2018-06-15 10:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150833 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 13 12(25) 7(32) 5(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 100W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 7(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 34 1 8( 9) 16(25) 11(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) P MALDONADO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics

2018-06-15 07:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 05:37:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 03:34:31 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042018)

2018-06-15 07:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Four-E was located near 15.4, -100.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 2A

2018-06-15 07:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150536 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 100.3W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 100.3 West. The depression is nearly stationary off the southern coast of Mexico, and it is expected to meander for the next couple of days, eventually drifting northward toward the coast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the system is expected to be a tropical storm when it approaches Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero coast, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts approaching 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Farther inland across the state of Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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