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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2018-06-15 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 08:35:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 09:34:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-06-15 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 The center of the depression has been difficult to locate, although GOES-16 infrared satellite images and radar data from Acapulco suggest that the system as a whole has not moved very much. Deep convection has increased over the past few hours, but it bears little association with the estimated center and is focused primarily where low-level convergence is maximized near the coast. Although some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, moderate northerly shear and the cyclone's proximity to land will likely limit the amount of intensification that can occur. The SHIPS guidance only shows modest strengthening, and the global models don't really deepen the low much, if any, before it moves inland. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA models and is a little lower than the previous forecast at 48 h. A 72-hour point is provided inland for continuity, but the cyclone could dissipate before that time. The depression is currently stationary in a region absent of steering currents. However, as a low- to mid-level trough moves northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas in the coming days, that feature should cause the depression to drift northeastward and then northward, moving inland over southern Mexico between 48-72 hours. The new NHC forecast is slightly east of the previous one, following the preponderance of the available guidance. As noted before, there is lower-than-normal confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts. Changes to the forecast, as well as modifications to the warned areas, could be required in subsequent advisories if the location and size of the cyclone become clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.4N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.5N 99.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.8N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.2N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 16.9N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-15 10:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISHEVELED DEPRESSION STALLS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN THE ACAPULCO AREA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Four-E was located near 15.3, -100.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 3
2018-06-15 10:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150833 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...DISHEVELED DEPRESSION STALLS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN THE ACAPULCO AREA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 100.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was estimated near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 100.2 West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow drift toward the northeast and then north is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the depression could reach the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero coast, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts approaching 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Farther inland across the state of Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-06-15 10:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150833 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.4N 100.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 99.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.8N 99.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 99.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.9N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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