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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-06-15 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Tropical Depression Four-E remains very disorganized. Last-light visible imagery showed that multiple low-level swirls are rotating around a mean center. IR imagery and radar data from the Mexican radar in Acapulco indicate that deep convection is largely limited to a broken band wrapping around the eastern half of the depression, with only a single burst of deep convection recently observed near the estimated center. Given the disorganized nature of the depression, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, though it is possible this is generous. Little change has been made to the intensity forecast. Although SSTs exceed 30 deg C along the forecast track, moderate vertical wind shear, close proximity to land, and the lack of an inner core should limit the intensification rate. Rapid weakening is likely following landfall, and the system is now forecast to dissipate within 96 h. The official forecast remains near the corrected consensus aid HCCA. The disorganized nature of the depression makes it difficult to identify and track a surface center, so the initial position and motion estimates are very uncertain. All of the global models indicate that the system will meander near the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, ultimately drifting northward toward land. The NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the previous track advisory. It is worth noting that confidence in both the track and intensity forecast is low. It is possible that the surface center could reform one or more times over the next couple of days, either bringing the system inland sooner than currently forecast or keeping it over water longer than expected. Large changes to the intensity or track forecasts may be required in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.6N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.8N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 16.2N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-06-15 04:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150233 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 7 11(18) 14(32) 8(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 100W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 1 13(14) 20(34) 10(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 13(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-15 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GUERRERO COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Four-E was located near 15.4, -100.3 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-06-15 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GUERRERO COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 100.3W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 100.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The system is expected to meander off the southwest coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, eventually drifting northward toward the coast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the system is expected to be a tropical storm when it approaches Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero coast, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts approaching 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Farther inland across the state of Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-06-15 04:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150232 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.6N 100.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.8N 100.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 99.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N 99.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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