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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-25 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 the center of Four-E was located near 14.3, -100.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2017-06-25 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 250232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 100.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 100.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four-E is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-06-25 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system south of Mexico has a well-defined circulation with convective banding features developing near the center. The convection appears to have enough organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5 from SAB. The depression is located to the southwest of a closed mid-/ upper-level low located over the western Gulf of Mexico, and to the southeast of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over Arizona. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300/9 kt, and this general motion should continue for the next three days as the depression is increasingly steered by the strong high pressure to its north. Some decrease in speed is likely by days 4 and 5 once the cyclone weakens and is steered by lower-level winds. The track models are showing relatively little cross-track spread, but there are some speed differences, with the ECMWF most notably being slower than the other guidance. The NHC official track forecast is relatively close to the multi-model consensus TVCN, and there is high confidence that the cyclone will move parallel to the coast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds well offshore. Water vapor imagery shows the depression's outflow expanding in nearly all directions, and deep-layer shear is forecast to be very low for the entire forecast period. Therefore, strengthening is expected for the next 48 hours before the cyclone reaches colder water. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows HCCA during the first 36 hours but then diverges from HCCA and indicates a peak intensity occurring at 48 hours, which is closer in timing to the peak intensities shown by SHIPS, the GFS, and the ECMWF models. Cold water should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by day 4 or 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.3N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.1N 101.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.8N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.9N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-06-25 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 250232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 105W 34 X 9( 9) 21(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) L CARDENAS 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 3(42) X(42) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 5(33) 1(34) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-06-25 04:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 250232 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 100.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 100.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.1N 101.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.8N 105.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 100.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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