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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 37
2019-09-21 16:53:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211452 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO TURNS WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS ENDURING TREK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 131.1W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 131.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is expected to begin later today, and this general motion should continue through Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2019-09-21 16:53:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 211452 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) 8(43) 1(44) X(44) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 37
2019-09-21 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 211452 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-21 11:03:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:03:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 36
2019-09-21 11:00:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210900 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. All of the intensity guidance continues to show quick weakening as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and into a drier and slightly more stable environment. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, except the intensity has been held steady for the next 36 hours due to forecast very low shear conditions by the GFS and ECMWF models. The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Despite this most recent slow northward jog, the new NHC guidance still shows Kiko turning westward later today, followed by an unusual wave-like motion as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in strength during the 5-day period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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