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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2019-09-21 10:59:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210859 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-21 10:59:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.8, -130.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 36
2019-09-21 10:59:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210859 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 130.3W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 130.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a west-southwestward motion through early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 36
2019-09-21 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 012 WTPZ23 KNHC 210858 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 130.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 35
2019-09-21 04:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A 2145Z AMSR2 overpass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye displaced to the northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS was 56 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. The above-mentioned AMSR2 pass and a partial SSMIS pass at 2355Z showed the center of Kiko was located farther east than previously estimated. After some adjustments to the working best track, the initial motion estimate is 325/04. The guidance still shows Kiko moving on a wave-like trajectory as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in intensity during the forecast period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast, but is a little faster, trending toward the speed of the consensus aids. There is a lot of spread in the model guidance, by day 5, with the GFS and ECMWF over 400 n mi apart, so confidence in the details of the track forecast is low especially late in the forecast period. All of the intensity guidance shows quick weakening with Kiko, as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and in a somewhat stable and dry atmospheric environment. The new NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward, and is near or a little above the latest intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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