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Tropical Depression Narda Graphics
2019-10-01 13:47:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 11:47:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 09:31:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-10-01 10:49:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 08:49:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 09:31:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-10-01 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 The ill-defined surface center of Narda is a bit difficult to find this morning, but the best estimate, using conventional satellite imagery, is just offshore of the mainland Mexico coast and about 30 miles southeast of the now decoupled mid-level circulation. The majority of the deep convection associated with the cyclone has moved inland. However, sustained tropical-storm-force winds may still exist along and just offshore of the coast, north of Los Mochis, Sinaloa and south of Guaymas, Sonora. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, and a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Although Narda's center has re-emerged over the Gulf of California, further weakening is still forecast, and dissipation of the cyclone is anticipated as it once again moves inland over the rugged terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico on Wednesday. It's worth noting, however, that a couple of the large-scale models indicate Narda's remnants drifting back just offshore over the central Gulf of California prior to dissipation. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/12 kt. This general northwestward motion, within the mid-level southwestern peripheral flow of strong high pressure ridging to the northeast, is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new NHC forecast track is changed little from the previous one. The main hazard produced by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of deep-layer moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains through Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.6N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0600Z 29.2N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2019-10-01 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 649 FOPZ11 KNHC 010841 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 5 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 34 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-10-01 10:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA WEAKENING AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 the center of Narda was located near 26.6, -109.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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