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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 12
2019-10-01 10:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010841 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 ...NARDA WEAKENING AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 109.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 109.7 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move onshore in northwestern mainland Mexico by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Narda is forecast to become a tropical depression today. On Wednesday, Narda should degenerate into a remnant low and dissipate in northwestern mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding early Tuesday. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding over northwest Mexico. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Advisory Number 12
2019-10-01 10:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010840 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTATA TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 109.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 109.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.9N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.2N 111.6W...INLAND POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 109.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-10-01 07:51:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 05:51:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 03:31:19 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-10-01 07:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... As of 12:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 the center of Narda was located near 26.1, -109.3 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 11A
2019-10-01 07:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010549 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 ...NARDA ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 109.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located inland near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 109.3 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move onshore in northwestern mainland Mexico by late tonight. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through today: Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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