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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-30 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302039 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 A couple of microwave passes that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory showed that Narda had become better organized this morning. The imagery revealed well-defined banding and a mid-level eye feature that was located just offshore the coast of mainland Mexico. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt, respectively. Recent ASCAT data supported an intensity on the lower end of this range, therefore the advisory wind speed has been set at 45 kt. A 10-minute average wind of 32 kt with a gust to 43 kt was reported at Mazatlan late this morning as the center of Narda passed nearby. Since the center is so close to the coast, little additional strengthening is expected. By late tonight or early Tuesday, Narda is likely to move just inland along the coast and weakening should begin by that time. The system is forecast to become a remnant low within a couple of days and dissipate over northwestern Mexico shortly thereafter. Weakening and dissipation could occur much sooner if Narda moves to the right of the current NHC forecast track. Narda continues to move quickly northwestward or 325/14 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning as Narda should continue heading northwestward along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the 1200 UTC ECMWF model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 24.0N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0600Z 28.2N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1800Z 29.4N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-09-30 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 302039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 X 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) HUATABAMPO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 7 35(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LOS MOCHIS 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-30 22:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF NARDA HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 24.0, -107.4 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-09-30 22:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 302039 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 107.4W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 107.4W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.4N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 109.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.2N 110.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.4N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 10
2019-09-30 22:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 302039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...CENTER OF NARDA HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 107.4W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 107.4 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this evening, but Narda should begin to weaken later tonight and Tuesday as it intersects with land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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